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Italy's 5 Year CDS have also performed well over that time frame, declining 18%. When we plot the FTSE MIB Index against the 5 Year CDS prices, we see how the sovereign credit markets are essentially driving stock prices. The inverse correlation is tight (although the magnitude of changes in the CDS price is higher):
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The austerity measures haven't really begun to take effect in Italy yet so we are about to find out if we're going to see the same kind of resistance as that which occurred in Greece. The belt tightening might further widen the rift between the industrious north (the ants) and the more socialist south (the grasshoppers) which may make an already volatile situation even more contentious. That is an extra variable that Greece did not have to contend with.
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