On balance, the commodity complex signaled deflation in 2011 with price declines occurring in 18 out of the 27 commodity futures that we track. The largest decline was in cotton futures, which dropped 40% from the end of January and are off 58% from their 2011 highs. Here's the list of the top ten decliners:
We focused on cotton back on November 3rd and at that time prices were down 35% for the year. We referenced the International Cotton Advisory Board which had projected that as a result of an increasing surplus, cotton prices would remain soft going into 2012. Score one for the ICAB.
Here's the line chart for cotton going back to January 2011:
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