Saturday, February 4, 2012

Today's Major Market Move: Venezuelan Stock Market is the Best Performer since January 2011

When we rolled over into the new year, we reported on the best performing stock market in 2011 which turned out to be Venezuela. A little over a month later, the Venezuelan market continues to move higher with an 8% gain and remains by a wide margin the top performing equity market globally since January 2011. Here's the top 10:

Click here to go to the live table.
We've been referring to this impressive performance by Venezuelan stocks as the "oncological boom". The market is rallying on the expectation that regime change initiated by Chavez's premature death from cancer will result in pro-business reforms. At the end of 2011 Chavez tried to give the impression that his health was improving and he was on his way towards a full recovery. This more recent report from CNN indicates otherwise:
Cancer has spread in Hugo Chavez's colon, spine and bones, and the Venezuelan president could have only nine months to live, Spain's ABC newspaper reported Monday, citing medical records provided by unidentified intelligence sources. 
"His health appears to be deteriorating at a more rapid pace. Clearly there has been metastasis in the bones and the spine," the ABC report says, citing what it said were doctors' observations after medical tests December 30.
Since mid 2011 Venezuela's equity market began outpacing GDP growth and is now well out in front. These are lofty expectations for a new regime that may or may not be taking power in the near future and the form of which won't be known until it actually does come to power.
Click here to go to the live chart.

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