Today's Major Market Move: Ukrainian Equity Market Up 6.8% in November

It's on the fringes of the global economy, in relatively smaller economies like Iceland, Hungary and the Ukraine, where we get a better picture of where things are heading. These fringe countries are the proverbial canaries in the coal mine. In this post we will focus on the Ukrainian economy and stock market, which has been the best performer in November globally, rising 6.8%.

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Over a longer time frame, the news is less rosy. Year to date in 2011, the Ukrainian Equities Index is down 38%, ninth worst out of all of the global equity indexes we track.

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We've highlighted the Ukrainian equity market twice before on June 27, 2011 and Oct 22, 2011. We discussed Ukraine's sovereign debt issues and how the country depends on the IMF for financing (IMF's 2nd largest borrower).

It is difficult to pinpoint any major reasons for this monthly rebound and I thought it may have to do with a corresponding uptick in agricultural commodities or steel. However agricultural commodity price gains were a mixed bag in November and steel prices declined (chart courtesy of the LME):

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The rebound may not last into December since even though global markets have received a push from recent bailout news, Ukraine just cut their 2012 GDP growth forecast from 5.5% to 4.0%.