Monday, April 9, 2012

Today's Major Market Move: FCOJ Futures Drop 3.7% in Monday's Session

The 2012 version of the screwdriver: replace the vodka with volatility. Frozen concentrate futures have been on quite the ride this year, spiking over 30% on the fears that Brazilian imports would be banned because of a fungicide, and then collapsing back down after the Brazilians indicated the fungicide would no longer be used. As is often the case, the post-spike reversal has had so much momentum that the price has now fallen below pre-spike levels.

Click here to go to the live chart.
According to this article from Reuters, FCOJ futures haven't been this low since Oct 2010 and indicators point to the price falling further:
Futures have plummeted 35 percent from a record $2.2695 a pound on Jan. 23. Groves in Florida, the world’s second-biggest citrus grower, avoided freezing weather in the first quarter, and concerns eased that supplies would be disrupted by a U.S. probe of imports containing a banned fungicide.

“This market has nothing bullish going for it,” Michael Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options Inc. in Port St. Lucie, Florida, said in a telephone interview. “Demand is weak, and unless we get a huge weather event, this market could go down to $1 by the end of the year.”
For the year FCOJ is down 9.6%, well behind Natural Gas and Coffee futures which are both down over 20%. Here's the top ten worst performers in the commodities space for 2012:

Click here to go to the live table.

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