The 2012 version of the screwdriver: replace the vodka with volatility. Frozen concentrate futures have been on quite the ride this year, spiking over 30% on the fears that Brazilian imports would be banned because of a fungicide, and then collapsing back down after the Brazilians indicated the fungicide would no longer be used. As is often the case, the post-spike reversal has had so much momentum that the price has now fallen below pre-spike levels.
According to this article from Reuters, FCOJ futures haven't been this low since Oct 2010 and indicators point to the price falling further:
Futures have plummeted 35 percent from a record $2.2695 a pound on Jan. 23. Groves in Florida, the world’s second-biggest citrus grower, avoided freezing weather in the first quarter, and concerns eased that supplies would be disrupted by a U.S. probe of imports containing a banned fungicide.
“This market has nothing bullish going for it,” Michael Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options Inc. in Port St. Lucie, Florida, said in a telephone interview. “Demand is weak, and unless we get a huge weather event, this market could go down to $1 by the end of the year.”
For the year FCOJ is down 9.6%, well behind Natural Gas and Coffee futures which are both down over 20%. Here's the top ten worst performers in the commodities space for 2012:
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